The increased attention to Bordeaux with EP 2022, coupled with a reasonably quiet few months for other wine regions, resulted in a rather peaceful Q2 for the fine wine industry.
So far, the year has proven to be much better for markets and economies than initially anticipated. The service sector has remained impressively thriving while the manufacturing sector has suffered. The market labour stands strong and the economy is further propped up by savings amassed during Covid and the desire to make up for missed experiences in the pandemic.
A sizeable portion of the market is hoping that inflation will fade quickly, and banks will shift to growth support, so that instead of spurring recession markets will be able to prevent one.
We are on the more cautious side. There are still plenty of outstanding issues that need to be solved and questions that are still unanswered. Rates likely won’t be slashed pre-emptively, hence recession is still more likely to occur than not. Investment Grade Wine’s traditionally low correlation to conventional markets, low volatility and performance continues to make it a celebrated investment class.
| Index | YTD | 1 Year | 2 Year | 5 Year |
| Liv-Ex 100 | -6.1% | -4.5% | 16.6% | 24.4% |
| S&P 500 | 14.6% | 12.8% | 0.7% | 63.8% |
| FTSE 100 | 3.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 1.4% |
| NIKKEI 225 | 24.1% | 22.1% | 15.9% | 48.8% |
| Gold | 4.7% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 53.3% |
| Brent Crude Oil | -8.4% | -28.2% | -1.0% | -4.9% |
The Financial Market in Q2 2023
| Date | Liv-Ex 100 | Dow Jones IA | FTSE 100 | Nikkei 225 | Brent Crude | Gold Price | SPX 500 |
| 30.Apr.23 | -0,49% | 2,48% | -1,04% | 2,91% | 3,55% | 2,13% | -0,80% |
| 31.May.23 | -2,02% | -3,48% | -4,40% | 7,04% | -13,57% | -1,38% | 1,05% |
| 30.Jun.23 | -2,92% | 4,54% | 1,15% | 7,45% | 4,71% | -2,66% | 6,47% |
| Q2 Average | -1,81% | 1,18% | -1,43% | 5,80% | -1,77% | -0,64% | 2,24% |
*Month over month change
US
Over the last half a year the Fed has made good progress in curbing US inflation, from 9% in 2022 to 4% in May 2023. Core inflation has remained stagnant at around 5% for four consecutive months. One of the most notable aspects of Q2 for financial markets is the growth of AI and its development to becoming a more advanced tool.
Asia
Japan is becoming ever more appealing to foreign investors due to a multitude of factors, including a late covid reopening and the market welcoming mild inflation after a period of deflation in 2021.
As previously mentioned in our Q1 report, we expected China’s reopening to boost trade in Q2 and we still stand by that. To that end, the Chinese government has set reviving and boosting consumption as their top priorities.
UK & Europe
Last winter, thanks to better-than-expected weather, Europe managed to avert a recession. Inflation is still an issue and the general sentiment is hawkish. UK economic data has seemingly bottomed out and surprise indices have been on the rise at the end of the quarter.
Wine Performance in Q2
| Index | Q2 | 1 Year | 2 Year | 5 Year |
| Liv-Ex 100 | -4,3% | -4.5% | 16.6% | 24.4% |
| Burgundy 150 | -6,8% | -6.2% | 40.9% | 67.6% |
| Bordeaux 500 | -3,3% | -1.5% | 8.5% | 12.5% |
| Rhone 100 | -10,4 | -17.5% | -3.2% | 8.0% |
| Champagne 50 | -4,6% | -5.3% | 42.8% | 71.7% |
| Date | Liv-Ex 100 | BDX 500 | BGDY 150 | CHAM 50 | RHO 100 | ITAL 100 |
| 30.Apr.23 | 0,19% | -0,40% | -1,52% | -1,38% | -1,50% | -0,86% |
| 31.May.23 | -0,49% | -1,35% | -2,70% | -2,12% | -6,32% | -0,59% |
| 30. Jun.23 | -2,92% | -1,57% | -2,79% | -1,25% | -3,13% | -1,34% |
| Q2 Average | -1,81% | -1,10% | -2,34% | -1,58% | -3,65% | -0,93% |
*Month over month change
Wine Regional Performances
Burgundy
The current downward trend for Burgundy is proving to be a boon to investors. Albeit counterintuitive, a further price drop creates opportunities for the Burgundy region.
The feverish and sustained increase in price for the region has left little opportunity for new entrants to build or establish a foothold in the market which has miniscule supply. To those who already have Burgundy in their cellar, this means a slight dip in short-term prices, whilst for those who don’t this provides an opportunity to acquire some at a discount to previous highs. The 2022 and 2023 vintages in Burgundy promise higher volumes, however, no reduction in price, with new markets adding to traditional ones expected to continue to stretch supply.
Bordeaux
Q2 for Bordeaux has been highlighted by the En Primeur campaign going into full swing. The scope of the campaign and the pricing attracted almost if not all the attention for May and June. According to Liv-ex, the average Benchmark Critic scores in the 2022 vintage are higher than any other dating back to 2005.
As such the 2022 Bordeaux wines are now widely regarded as one of the great vintages. Still, the campaign faced challenges due to the ever-increasing prices. In mid-June, figures showed that prices had increased by more than 16% on average when compared to prior release prices. This resulted in a mixed response from buyers and consumers. During the third week, the average price saw a 19% increase.
The leading allocations and wines sold out quickly with many experiencing a second tranche release price. Attention turned to back vintages of wines which were available and offering some bottle age.
Champagne
There is still plenty of room for growth and missing out on the current buying opportunity might prove to be regrettable in the future. The current trend is nothing but a correction that leads to price consolidation, and we believe that we are near the end of the correction and entering the consolidation period. New releases have been met with strong demand and we expect the leading names to continue their rise, with the Grand Marques reaching unprecedented prices over the next decade.
Italy
| Wine | MoM | YTD | 1 Year | 2 Year | 5 Year |
| Tignanello 2015 | -2.2% | -5.3% | 7.6% | 32.4% | 93.5% |
| Masseto 2014 | -1.8% | -7.1% | 14.8% | 32.2% | 47.7% |
| Sassicaia 2015 | -1.4% | -8.0% | -5.5% | 16.6% | 107.4% |
| Solaia 2014 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 15.9% | 33.4% | 62.4% |
Tuscany was among the leading regions in terms of trade at the end of June, with 21.7% of total trade by value in Q2. In the last 5 years, Italian wines have enjoyed a renaissance after the United States put a 25% tax tariff on imports of wines from France a couple of years ago – but not from Italy.
Even though the tariff was lifted in 2021, the average trade volume for Italian wines, both investment and consumption, has increased drastically creating demand and driving prices up. The price of the best Italian wines has gone up by 43 per cent over the past 5 years. Bordeaux wines rose in value by 12.5 per cent on average over the same period. Notable wines from the area included Super Tuscans Ornellaia and Sassicaia Tenuta San Guido.
Rhone
Rhone 100 has experienced a drop in price during Q2 of 6.3% in May and 12.3% YTD. This can be attributed to its component list, specifically Chateau Rayas. Out of the 100 wines that comprise the Rhone 100, Rayas takes up 10 of those spots.
The decrease in the market price for Rayas can be largely explained by a correction or cooling of the market. Rayas has an average five-year increase of 307.5%, therefore it’s only natural that the wines are experiencing a decrease in price as it tries to reach price equilibrium.
Q3 2023 Outlook
Financial Markets
Although current data suggests stability, several predictive indicators historically indicate an upcoming recession. These indicators tend to show signs of a recession happening within one to four quarters in advance, making the exact timing uncertain.
We anticipate a decrease in economic growth during the latter half of this year. Moreover, we foresee a recession’s onset in early 2024. Although the bank failures in March 2023 may not indicate a systemic crisis, there may be a credit squeeze which could pose challenges for future growth.
Corporate profits reached their highest point in the fourth quarter of 2022. Corporate margins are now shrinking because companies are finding it more difficult to raise prices due to declining inflation. Based on historical data, it has been observed that corporate profits tend to reach their highest point about four quarters before a recession hits. Furthermore, important business sentiment surveys are indicating a contraction in the economy.
The Wine Sector
Burgundy
We believe that shortly, when the market has cooled down enough and the price reaches an equilibrium point, investors that have been previously priced out will flock to Burgundy. The region, regardless of socio-economic circumstances, has always been a standout in wine and the 10-year returns support that sentiment.
Bordeaux
The 22 campaign has potentially established a new age when it comes to En Primeur. Whether dramatic price increases year-over-year will become a new norm remains to be seen.
Due to the way the 2022 campaign has been handled, we believe that older Bordeaux wines will now become increasingly appealing. Older comparable vintages have been ready to drink, cheaper and have had more time to be appraised. To this end, it is all but guaranteed that back-vintages will experience a surge in price in the coming months.
Champagne
We believe that sustained global demand and the corporate might of the Champagne houses will offer continued global expansion for the Grand Marque names. For example, the global distribution and strength of LVMH will push Dom Perignon’s pricing to £300 per bottle during this decade.
Such a drive for a price increase would create a rubber band effect, pulling up the prices of other established brands so as not to fall behind the trend/curve. From an investment perspective, this means that the increase in price of newer releases and their desirability will also pull the prices of back vintages creating an incredible investment opportunity.
In Summary
As with all markets and investment classes, there are periods of growth and periods of corrections and downturns. Wine is currently experiencing a period of downturn after a prolonged period of growth. It is only par for the course to see some dips in the overall indices.
Nonetheless, in the long run, wine is still outperforming other asset classes in risk-to-reward ratios guaranteeing the safety of your investments.
We believe that as the year goes on the downward cycle will bottom out and eventually change trajectory into a new growth cycle. One noteworthy thing to remember with wine, based on historical performance, is that growth cycles are considerably longer and more explosive than downturns. To that end, if you as an investor were to use this downturn as an opportunity you would be well rewarded. Even if your portfolio has incurred losses, by weathering a storm and not giving in to the temptation to sell, said losses will quickly be recuperated once the new growth cycle begins.